Abakhiqizi abahamba phambili bama-memory chips basebenza kanzima ukuze banqobe ubusika obubandayo.AbakwaSamsung Electronics, i-SK Hynix kanye neMicron banciphisa ukukhiqizwa, babhekana nezinkinga zokusungula izinto, zonga izindleko ezinkulu, futhi babambezela inqubekelaphambili yobuchwepheshe obuthuthukile ukuze babhekane nesidingo esibuthakathaka senkumbulo."Sisenkathini yokwehla kwenzuzo".Ngomhla zingama-27 kuMfumfu, abakwaSamsung Electronics batshele abatshalizimali emhlanganweni wombiko wezezimali wekota yesithathu ukuthi, ngaphezu kwalokho, inani lenkampani lenyuke ngokushesha kwikota yesithathu.
Inkumbulo iyigatsha eliphezulu kakhulu lemakethe ye-semiconductor, enendawo yemakethe elinganiselwa ku-160 billion dollars ngo-2021. Ingabonakala futhi yonke indawo emikhiqizweni kagesi.Kungumkhiqizo ojwayelekile osukhule kakhulu emakethe yamazwe ngamazwe.Imboni inezikhathi ezisobala nezinguquko ku-inventory, isidingo, namandla.Ukukhiqizwa kanye nenzuzo yabakhiqizi kushintsha kakhulu ngokuguquguquka okujikelezayo kwemboni.
Ngokocwaningo lwe-TrendForce Jibang Consulting, izinga lokukhula kwemakethe ye-NAND ngo-2022 lizoba ngama-23.2% kuphela, okuyizinga lokukhula eliphansi kakhulu eminyakeni eyi-8 yakamuva;Izinga lokukhula kwenkumbulo (i-DRAM) lingama-19% kuphela, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi liqhubeke lehle liye ku-14.1% ngo-2023.
UJeffrey Mathews, umhlaziyi omkhulu wezinsizakalo zobuchwepheshe bezingxenye zocingo oluphathwayo kwa-Strategy Analytics, utshele izintatheli ukuthi ukuthengiswa ngokweqile kwemakethe kuqhubekisele phambili ukwehla komjikelezo, okuyisizathu esiyinhloko samanani aphansi e-DRAM ne-NAND.Ngo-2021, abakhiqizi bazoba nethemba ngokukhula kokukhiqiza.I-NAND ne-DRAM zisazoshoda.Njengoba uhlangothi lwesidingo luqala ukwehla ngo-2022, imakethe izogcwala ngokweqile.Enye i-SK Hynix ithe embikweni wayo wezimali wekota yesithathu ukuthi isidingo semikhiqizo ye-DRAM kanye ne-NAND besinovilapha, futhi kokubili ukuthengiswa nezintengo zehlile.
USravan Kundojjala, umqondisi wezinsizakalo zezobuchwepheshe ze-Strategy Analytics, utshele izintatheli ukuthi ukwehla komnotho kokugcina kwenzeka ngo-2019, lapho imali engenayo kanye nezindleko ezinkulu zazo zonke izitshalo zememori zehla kakhulu, futhi imakethe ebuthakathaka yahlala izingxenye ezimbili ngaphambi kokuphuma.Kukhona ukufana okuthile phakathi kuka-2022 no-2019, kodwa kulokhu ukulungiswa kubonakala kukhulu kakhulu.
UJeffrey Mathews uthe lo mjikelezo uphinde waphazanyiswa yisidingo esiphansi, ukwehla komnotho kanye nokungezwani kwezepolitiki.Isidingo sama-smartphones nama-PC, abashayeli ababili abakhulu benkumbulo iminyaka eminingi, sibuthakathaka kakhulu futhi kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke kuze kube ngu-2023.
AbakwaSamsung Electronics bathi kumadivayisi eselula, isidingo kungenzeka sihlale sibuthakathaka futhi sihamba kancane engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ozayo, futhi ukuzethemba kwabathengi kuzohlala kuphansi ngaphansi kwethonya lobuthakathaka besizini.Ku-PC, i-inventory eqoqwe ngenxa yokuthengisa okuphansi izophela engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka ozayo, futhi kungenzeka ibone ukululama okukhulu kwesidingo.Le nkampani izoqhubeka nokugxila ekutheni umnotho omkhulu ungasimama yini engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka ozayo kanye nezimpawu zokusimama kwezimboni.
USravan Kundojjala uthe isikhungo sedatha, izimoto, izimboni, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nezinkambu zenethiwekhi zinikeza abahlinzeki bememori ukukhula okuphezulu kwesikhathi esizayo.I-Micron, i-SK Hynix ne-Samsung Electronics bonke bakhulume ngokuvela kwabanye abashayeli abasha emibikweni yezimali yekota yesithathu: izikhungo zedatha namaseva kuzoba amandla alandelayo okushayela anamandla emakethe yenkumbulo.
Ukusungula okuphezulu
Idivaysi ye-elekthronikhi eyisisekelo ihlanganisa amasistimu alandelayo, izinzwa, amaphrosesa, izinkumbulo nama-actuator.Inkumbulo inesibopho somsebenzi wenkumbulo yolwazi, engahlukaniswa ibe inkumbulo (i-DRAM) nememori ye-flash (NAND) ngokohlobo lomkhiqizo.Ifomu lomkhiqizo elivamile le-DRAM ngokuyinhloko imojuli yememori.I-Flash ingabonakala yonke indawo empilweni, okuhlanganisa ikhadi le-microSD, i-U disk, i-SSD (i-solid state disk), njll.
Imakethe yenkumbulo igxile kakhulu.Ngokusho kwedatha ye-World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organisation (WSTS), i-Samsung, iMicron ne-SK Hynix ihlangene yenza cishe u-94% wemakethe ye-DRAM.Emkhakheni we-NAND Flash, i-Samsung, i-Armor Man, i-SK Hynix, i-Western Digital, i-Micron ne-Intel ndawonye yenza cishe u-98%.
Ngokusho kwedatha yokubonisana ye-TrendForce Jibang, amanani e-DRAM ehle yonke indlela kusukela ekuqaleni konyaka, futhi intengo yenkontileka engxenyeni yesibili ka-2022 izokwehla ngaphezu kwe-10% njalo ngekota.Izintengo ze-NAND nazo zehliswa nakakhulu.Ngekota yesithathu, ukwehla kunyuswe kusuka ku-15-20% kuya ku-30-35%.
Ngomhla zingama-27 kuMfumfu, abakwaSamsung Electronics bakhiphe imiphumela yekota yesithathu, eyabonisa ukuthi umnyango we-semiconductor (DS) obhekele ibhizinisi lama-chip unemali engenayo engu-23.02 trillion ewiniwe engxenyeni yesithathu, ephansi kunalokho okulindelwe abahlaziyi.Imali engenayo yomnyango obhekele ukugcinwa kwebhizinisi iwinile ngo-15.23 trillion, yehle ngo-28% ngenyanga kanye no-27% unyaka nonyaka.I-Samsung Electronics ihlanganisa ama-semiconductors, izinto zikagesi zasendlini, amaphaneli nama-smartphone.
Le nkampani ithe ubuthakathaka benkumbulo bufihla umkhuba okhulayo wokusebenza okuphelele.Isamba senzuzo yonke sehle ngo-2.7%, kanti inzuzo yokusebenza nayo yehle ngamaphesenti angu-4.1 yafinyelela ku-14.1%.
Ngomhla zingama-26 kuMfumfu, imali engenile ye-SK Hynix ngekota yesithathu inqobile ngo-10.98 trillion, futhi inzuzo yayo yokusebenza yazuza amathriliyoni angu-1.66, kwathi ukuthengisa nenzuzo yokusebenza yehla ngo-20.5% kanye no-60.5% ngenyanga ngokulandelana.NgoSepthemba 29, iMicron, enye imboni enkulu, yakhipha umbiko wayo wezezimali wekota yesine ka-2022 (Juni Agasti 2022).Imali engenayo yayingama-US $ 6.64 billion kuphela, yehle ngama-23% ngenyanga kanye nama-20% unyaka nonyaka.
AbakwaSamsung Electronics bathi izizathu eziyinhloko zesidingo esibuthakathaka yizinkinga zamanje eziqhubekayo kanye namakhasimende okulungisa i-inventory abhekene nawo, okukhudlwana kunalokho obekulindelwe.Inkampani yabona ukuthi imakethe yayikhathazekile ngezinga layo eliphezulu lokusungula ngenxa yobuthakathaka bemikhiqizo yenkumbulo.
AbakwaSamsung Electronics bathi bebezama ukuphatha uhlu lwabo lube sezingeni elilinganayo.Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinga lamanje le-inventory ngeke lisahlulelwa ngezindinganiso ezidlule, ngenxa yokuthi amakhasimende ahlangabezana nomjikelezo wokulungiswa kwempahla, futhi ububanzi bokulungisa budlule obekulindelekile.
UJeffrey Mathews uthe esikhathini esedlule, beqhutshwa wukuhamba kwesikhathi kwemakethe yokugcina izinto, abakhiqizi baphuthuma ukuhlangabezana nokubuyiselwa kwesidingo nokwandisa umkhiqizo.Ngokuncishiswa kwesidingo samakhasimende, ukunikezwa kwaba ngokwedlulele kancane kancane.Manje babhekene nezinkinga zabo ze-inventory.
UMeguiar Light uthe cishe wonke amakhasimende amakhulu emakethe enza izinguquko zokusungula.U-Sravan Kundojjala utshele izintatheli ukuthi okwamanje, abanye abahlinzeki basayina izivumelwano zesikhathi eside namakhasimende, benethemba lokunciphisa imikhiqizo eqediwe ku-inventory, futhi bazama ukwenza i-inventory ithathelwe indawo ukuze balinganise noma yiziphi izinguquko ezifunwayo.
Isu le-Conservative
"Sihlale sigcizelela ukuthuthukiswa kwezindleko ukuze senze isakhiwo sezindleko siphakame kakhulu kunoma yimuphi imbangi, okuyindlela yokuqinisekisa inzuzo ezinzile okwamanje".AbakwaSamsung Electronics bakholelwa ukuthi imikhiqizo inokunwebeka kwentengo, engasetshenziswa ukudala ngokungemthetho isidingo esithile.Yiqiniso, umphumela unomkhawulo kakhulu, futhi umkhuba wentengo jikelele awukalawuleki.
I-SK Hynix ithe emhlanganweni wombiko wezezimali wekota yesithathu ukuthi ukuze kwandiswe izindleko, inkampani izamile ukwenza ngcono isilinganiso sokuthengisa kanye nesivuno semikhiqizo emisha engxenyeni yesithathu, kodwa ukwehla kwentengo okubukhali kudlule izindleko ezincishisiwe, kanye nenzuzo yokusebenza nayo. wenqabile.
Ngokusho kwedatha yokubonisana ye-TrendForce Jibang, ukuphuma kwenkumbulo kwe-Samsung Electronics, i-SK Hynix ne-Micron kugcine ukukhula okungu-12-13% kulo nyaka.Ngo-2023, ukukhishwa kwe-Samsung Electronics kuzokwehla ngo-8%, i-SK Hynix ngo-6.6%, kanye ne-Micron ngo-4.3%
Izimboni ezinkulu ziyaqaphela ekusetshenzisweni kwezimali ezinkulu kanye nokwanda kokukhiqiza.I-SK Hynix ithe ukusetshenziswa kwemali enkulu ngonyaka ozayo kuzokwehla ngaphezu kuka-50% ngonyaka, kanti utshalomali lwalo nyaka kulindeleke ukuthi lube ngama-trillion ayi-10-20.IMicron iphinde yathi izokwehlisa kakhulu ukusetshenziswa kwayo kwezimali ngonyaka wezimali ka-2023 futhi inciphise izinga lokusebenzisa izimboni zokukhiqiza.
I-TrendForce Jibang Consulting ithe ngokwenkumbulo, uma iqhathaniswa nezinhlelo zokutshala izimali ze-Samsung Electronics 'Q4 2023 kanye ne-Q4 2022, kuzokwengezwa izingcezu ezingu-40000 kuphela phakathi;U-SK Hynix wengeze amafilimu angu-20,000, kuyilapho u-Meguiar elinganisele, enamafilimu angu-5000 kuphela.Ngaphezu kwalokho, abakhiqizi ekuqaleni bakha izitshalo zenkumbulo ezintsha.Njengamanje, inqubekelaphambili yezitshalo iya phambili, kodwa ukuthambekela okuphelele kuyahlehliswa.
I-Samsung Electronics inethemba elilinganiselwe mayelana nokwanda kokukhiqiza.Le nkampani ithe izoqhubeka nokugcina izinga elifanele lokutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda ukuze ibhekane nesidingo sesikhathi esimaphakathi nesikude, kodwa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwayo ezintweni zokusebenza kuzovumelana nezimo.Nakuba isidingo samanje semakethe sincipha, inkampani idinga ukulungiselela ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo esikhathini esimaphakathi nesikhathi eside ngokombono wamasu, ngakho inkampani ngeke inciphise ukukhiqiza ukuze ihlangabezane nebhalansi yesikhathi esifushane yokunikezwa kanye nesidingo.
UJeffrey Mathews uthe ukuncishiswa kwezindleko kanye nokuphumayo kuzophinde kuthinte ucwaningo nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe obuphambili babakhiqizi, futhi ijubane lokukhuphukela kuma-node athuthukile lizohamba kancane, ngakho-ke ukuncishiswa kwe-bit cost (bit cost) nakho kuzoncipha.
Sibheke ngabomvu unyaka ozayo
Abakhiqizi abahlukene bachaza imakethe yenkumbulo ngendlela ehlukile.Ngokusho kophiko lwetheminali, amandla amathathu okushayela enkumbulo amafoni ahlakaniphile, ama-PC namaseva.
I-TrendForce Jibang Consulting ibikezela ukuthi isabelo semakethe yenkumbulo kusuka kumaseva sizokhula sifinyelele ku-36% ngo-2023, eduze nesabelo somakhalekhukhwini.Inkumbulo yeselula esetshenziselwa omakhalekhukhwini inesikhala esincane esingaphezulu, esingancishiswa sisuka ku-38.5% sasekuqaleni siye ku-37.3%.Ama-electronics abathengi emakethe yenkumbulo ye-flash azoba buthakathaka uma kuqhathaniswa, kanti amafoni ahlakaniphile akhula ngo-2.8% namakhompyutha aphathekayo ehle ngo-8-9%.
U-Liu Jiahao, umphathi wocwaningo we-Jibang Consulting, uthe "engqungqutheleni ye-2022 ye-Jibang Consulting Semiconductor Summit and Storage Industry Summit" ngo-Okthoba 12 ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa kwenkumbulo kungahlukaniswa kube amandla amaningana okushayela abalulekile, aqhutshwa ama-laptops kusukela ku-2008 kuya ku-2011;Ngo-2012, ngokuduma kwemishini ehlakaniphile efana nomakhalekhukhwini namathebulethi, futhi iqhutshwa yi-inthanethi, lawa madivaysi athatha indawo yama-laptops njengamandla amakhulu okushayela inkumbulo;Esikhathini sika-2016-2019, izinhlelo zokusebenza ze-inthanethi ziye zanda kakhulu, amaseva nezikhungo zedatha sezibaluleke kakhulu njengengqalasizinda yedijithali, futhi isitoreji sesiqalile ukuba nomfutho omusha.
UJeffrey Mathews uthe umjikelezo wokugcina wokuwohloka kwenkumbulo kwenzeka ngo-2019, ngoba isidingo sama-smartphones, imakethe enkulu kunazo zonke, sehlile.Ngaleso sikhathi, i-supply chain yaqongelela inani elikhulu lokusungula, isidingo sabakhiqizi bezingcingo ezihlakaniphile senqaba, futhi i-NAND ne-DRAM ASP (intengo emaphakathi yokuthengisa) yama-smart phone nawo ahlangabezana nokwehla kwamadijithi amabili.
U-Liu Jiahao uthe phakathi nenkathi esukela ku-2020 kuya ku-2022, isimo esiwubhubhane, ukuguqulwa kwedijithali, ubuthakathaka babathengi be-electronics nezinye izici eziguquguqukayo, futhi isidingo semboni se-high-intensity computing sasinamandla kunangaphambili.Abakhiqizi abaningi be-inthanethi kanye ne-IT baye babeka izikhungo zedatha, okuphinde kwaqhubekisela phambili ukuthuthukiswa kancane kancane kwedijithali emafini.Isidingo sesitoreji samaseva sizocaca kakhudlwana.Nakuba isabelo semakethe samanje sisencane, isikhungo sedatha namaseva kuzoba abashayeli ababalulekile bemakethe yokugcina izinto esikhathini esimaphakathi nesikhathi eside.
AbakwaSamsung Electronics bazokwengeza imikhiqizo yamaseva nezikhungo zedatha ngo-2023. AbakwaSamsung Electronics bathi, uma kucatshangelwa ukutshalwa kwezimali kwingqalasizinda ebalulekile efana ne-AI ne-5G, isidingo semikhiqizo ye-DRAM evela kumaseva sizohlala sizinzile ngonyaka ozayo.
USravan Kundojjala uthe abahlinzeki abaningi bafuna ukunciphisa ukugxila kwabo ezimakethe ze-PC kanye nama-smartphone.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, isikhungo sedatha, izimoto, imboni, ubuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nezinkambu zenethiwekhi zibanika amathuba okukhula.
UJeffrey Mathews uthe ngenxa yenqubekelaphambili eqhubekayo yobuchwepheshe benkumbulo maqondana nama-node athuthukile, ukusebenza kwemikhiqizo ye-NAND ne-DRAM kulindeleke ukuthi kufinyelele esizukulwaneni esilandelayo.Kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sezimakethe zokugcina ezibalulekile njengesikhungo sedatha, okokusebenza kanye nekhompyutha enqenqemeni kuzokhula kakhulu, ngakho abahlinzeki bashayela iphothifoliyo yomkhiqizo wabo wenkumbulo.Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kuthenjwa ukuthi abahlinzeki benkumbulo bazoqaphela ekwandiseni umthamo futhi balondoloze ukunikezwa okuqinile nokuqondiswa kwezintengo.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Nov-05-2022